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☆ Indian rupee set to weaken further in coming months: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BENGALURU, April 5 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee, one of the worst-performing Asian currencies last year, will fall further in the coming months and is expected to drift back to trade around where it is now in 12 months, according to a Reuters poll of FX strategists. Median forecasts from 40 respondents to a March 31-April 4 Reuters poll showed the rupee trading at 82.40/dollar by the end of the month and 82.55/dollar by the end of June. However, a fifth of respondents forecast the currency will change hands at 82.90/dollar or weaker as early as next month. A strong majority of poll respondents who answered an additional question, 13 of 16, said risks to their forecast were skewed towards the rupee being even weaker over the next month. "A key driver of the Indian rupee will continue to be the RBI's FX intervention strategy," noted Lin Li, head of global markets research Asia at MUFG.

☆ RBI to raise rates once more on April 6 but leave door open for more - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A majority of economists in the March 23-28 Reuters poll also said the RBI would then keep the rate steady for the rest of the year. A majority of respondents, 20 of 36, said the central bank would maintain its withdrawal of accommodation stance at the April meeting. Until that is behind us, the RBI probably will not be very comfortable in signalling that they are done with rate hikes," said QuantEco's Kumar. In last month's poll, all economists said the bigger risk was it would be higher than they predicted. The Indian economy was forecast to grow 6.9% this fiscal year and then slow to 6.0% in the next.

☆ India current account deficit likely narrowed to 2.7% of GDP in Q4
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The median forecast of 22 economists polled March 16-23 showed a current account deficit of $23.0 billion in October-December 2022, or 2.7% of gross domestic product (GDP). More than half of the expected narrowing is due to a reduction in the goods trade deficit, suggesting weakening domestic demand in Asia's third-largest economy. India's merchandise trade deficit shrank to $72.79 billion last quarter, compared to $78.32 billion in July-September, according to ministry of commerce data. These are the two reasons why we are seeing that the (current account deficit) numbers are better." A separate Reuters poll of economists who had a longer-term view forecast the current account gap to average 3.0% of GDP this fiscal year before shrinking to 2.6% in the next.

☆ RBNZ to hike rates 50bps on Feb. 22, another 50bps due by mid-year
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The RBNZ has already raised rates by a total of 400 basis points since October 2021. The remaining five economists expected a second successive 75-basis point move at the Feb. 22 policy meeting. But nearly half of respondents, 45%, predicted a lower peak rate. Inflation was expected to fall to 5.1% this year and 2.6% in 2024, a Reuters poll showed last month. A recent RBNZ survey expected price pressures to slow to 3.30% in the next two years.

BENGALURU, Feb 7 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee, one of the worst-performing Asian currencies last year, is forecast to strengthen very little in coming months and still trade above the 80 per dollar mark a year from now, a Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists found. The risk, however, is if U.S. inflation does not fall as much as markets are hoping it does in coming months. Even if it's marginally higher than what the market is currently expecting ... that could lead to a brief dollar rally and pressure the rupee." The latest Reuters poll of 43 foreign exchange analysts, taken after the Feb. 1 budget, showed the rupee strengthening just over 1% to 81.75 per dollar in the next six months. (For other stories from the February Reuters foreign exchange poll:)Reporting by Devayani Sathyan and Anant Chandak; Polling by Madhumita Gokhale and Veronica Khongwir; Editing by Hari Kishan, Ross FinleyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ RBI to hike repo rate by 25 bps in Feb, ending tightening cycle: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Like many other major central banks, the RBI is expected to then pause, waiting for inflation to fall before considering a shift toward a stimulative stance as Asia's third-largest economy slows. More than three-quarters of economists, 40 of 52, expected the RBI to raise its key repo rate (INREPO=ECI) by 25 basis points to 6.50%, according to a Jan. 13-27 Reuters poll. "They (the RBI) need to pause at some point to see what exactly is the impact of the previous monetary tightening overall on growth and inflation. That is why I believe it is not premature for them to pause after 6.50%," said Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank. A deteriorating global economic outlook also suggests downgrades to India's outlook are likely in coming months.

☆ Taiwan export orders seen contracting at faster pace in Dec
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The median forecast from a poll of 13 economists was for export orders to fall by 25.6% from a year earlier. Taiwan's export orders, a bellwether of global technology demand, fell by a worse-than-expected 23.4% in November. The government last month predicted December's export orders would be between 27.8% and 30.8% lower than those reported a year earlier. Taiwan's export orders are a leading indicator of demand for high-tech gadgets and Asian exports, and typically lead actual exports by two to three months. Poll compiled by Veronica Khongwir and Carol Lee; Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Jamie FreedOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Gulf economies to slow this year on sluggish oil demand - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Crude oil prices, a major driver for Gulf economies, are down more than a third from last year's highs and were expected to remain under pressure this year over fears of a recession in major economies sapping demand. Overall growth in the six GCC economies was forecast to average 3.3% and 2.8% this year and next respectively, the Jan. 9-23 poll showed, down from 4.2% and 3.3% in the previous poll. Among other Gulf countries - Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain - growth was expected at 2.4%-2.7% for 2023. Despite lower oil GDP growth, non-oil growth was expected to remain resilient in 2023, economists in the survey said. Analysts expected continued current account surpluses for the main Gulf economies, based on relatively high oil prices.

☆ Indian govt to borrow a record 16 trillion rupees in fiscal 2023/24 - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Gross borrowing next fiscal year is expected to hit 16.0 trillion rupees, up from an estimated 14.2 trillion rupees in 2022/23, according to the median forecast of 43 economists. Predictions were in a narrow range of 14.8 trillion to 17.2 trillion rupees. Even if it is at the lower end of the range, 2023/2024 gross borrowing would easily be the highest on record. Nim estimated repayments for 2023/24 at about 4.4 trillion rupees. India's government will cut food and fertiliser subsidies to 3.7 trillion rupees, more than 25% below the level of around 5 trillion rupees budgeted for 2022/23, the poll found.

☆ Thai c.bank to raise rates 25 bps, tourism to bolster growth: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Unlike its neighbours in Malaysia and Indonesia, The Bank of Thailand (BOT) is expected to keep tightening policy for awhile longer. Twenty-one of 23 economists polled by Reuters expected the BOT to raise its benchmark one-day repurchase rate (THCBIR=ECI) by 25 basis points (bps) to 1.50% on Jan. 25. This gives the BOT room to continue hiking rates, to continue anchoring inflation expectations." The poll median showed the central bank would then raise borrowing costs by another 25 bps, taking it to 2.00% by end-September. "The combination of improving growth prospects and still-elevated inflation gives the central bank room to continue reducing policy accommodation."

Food and fertiliser subsidies that help two-thirds of India's 1.4 billion people will also be scaled back, according to the survey. But private investment has lagged New Delhi's lead for about a decade. Capex is set to increase in fiscal 2023/24 by about 17% to 8.85 trillion Indian rupees ($109 billion), from an estimated 7.50 trillion rupees in the current fiscal year, itself up roughly 35% on a year before. Reuters Poll: Indian budget projections - 1The total of public and private investment as a proportion of the economy has declined since 2014, when Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party swept to power. The poll also found the government would cut food and fertiliser subsidies by 26% to 3.7 trillion rupees from almost 5.0 trillion rupees expected during the current fiscal year.

☆ Malaysia central bank to hike rates to 3.00% on Thursday: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Sujith Pai | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) became in May last year one of the first Asian central banks to hike rates in the current cycle and has added a cumulative 100 basis points. Median forecasts in the poll showed inflation to average 3.0% this year, an upgrade from the 2.8% predicted in October. All but one of 27 economists in the Jan. 10-16 Reuters poll forecast the central bank to hike its overnight policy rate (MYINTR=ECI) to 3.00%, where it was before the pandemic, at its meeting on Jan. 19. While a slim majority of respondents, 13 of 24, expected rates to still be 3.00% at end-March, 10 of them had a 3.25% forecast. Nearly 60% of economists, 14 of 24, expected rates to reach 3.25% or above by end-June, a quarter point higher from a November poll.

☆ Economists say BOJ's Amamiya is top governor candidate, tightening this week unlikely
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Kantaro Komiya | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Of the 24 economists who replied to the Jan 5-12 poll, 16, or 67%, chose Amamiya as the most likely candidate to become the next BOJ governor. Four economists in the poll, or 17%, chose Nakaso, who is seen less dovish than Amamiya, as the most likely candidate. In a September poll that asked the same question, Amamiya and Nakaso received 61% and 33% of economists' votes, respectively. Five analysts expected the unwinding of easing to start in April, at the first BOJ meeting under the new governor. Elsewhere in the poll, 83% of economists said Japanese nominal wages were unlikely to outpace rising consumer prices in 2023.

☆ China growth seen rebounding to 4.9% in 2023, more stimulus on the cards: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"We expect economic activities and consumption to rebound strongly from March-April onwards, helped by post-COVID re-opening and release of excess savings," Tao Wang, chief China economist at UBS, said in a research note. Reuters GraphicsThe expected 2022 growth rate would be far below the official target of around of 5.5%. China is likely to aim for economic growth of at least 5% in 2023 to keep a lid on unemployment, policy sources said. "Economic policy would turn more supportive in 2023. Consumer inflation will likely quicken to 2.3% in 2023 from 2.0% in 2022, before steadying in 2024, the poll showed.

☆ China's exports seen cooling further in December on weak global demand, COVID woes: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Imports are expected to have fallen at a slower pace at 9.8% over December, after a fall of 10.6% in November. With many of China's trade partners on the verge of going into recession, external demand is cooling, only adding to the pressure Chinese policymakers are under to stem the economic fallout of the spread of COVID. "The trade outlook could be a top threat to China's growth ambition next year," said analysts at Citi in a note. "We are concerned about the external demand amid global recession risks... our base case is a modest decline of exports in 2023E," they added. Reporting by Joe Cash; polling by Veronica Khongwir and Susobhan Sarkar; Editing by Raju GopalakrishnanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

BENGALURU, Jan 6 (Reuters) - A budget that accelerates fiscal consolidation would give more support to the Indian rupee in the near term, according to a Reuters poll of FX analysts who forecast the currency would erase a fifth of last year's losses over the next 12 months. A majority of FX analysts, 11 of 17, said a Feb. 1 budget that focuses on fiscal consolidation would help the Indian rupee the most in the near term. None of the respondents expected the rupee to be stronger than 75 per dollar, where it started 2022, at any point this year. Abhishek Upadhyay, senior economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership, said the "fiscal deficit is still too high and needs to be reduced" for the rupee to find some support. "High fiscal deficit will hurt the savings-investment balance, curb improvement in current account deficit, and complicate the RBI's efforts to temper inflation pressures."

Summary Data due at 1200 GMT Dec. 12BENGALURU, Dec 9 (Reuters) - India consumer price inflation likely cooled to a nine-month low of 6.40% in November mainly due to a moderation in food prices, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Food prices alone account for nearly 40% of the consumer price index (CPI) basket in Asia's third largest economy. The Dec. 5-8 Reuters poll of 45 economists predicted the second consecutive decline in inflation (INCPIY=ECI) to an annual 6.40% from 6.77% in October. The central bank maintained its inflation forecast for financial year 2022/23 at 6.7%, the same as a recent Reuters poll. Furthermore, there are upside risks to food inflation particularly from cereals."

☆ China's trade likely shrank further in Nov as external, local demand weakened
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies Trade data due on Wednesday, Dec 7BEIJING, Dec 5 (Reuters) - China's exports and imports likely contracted further in November due to weakening global demand, production disruptions and waning demand at home amid widespread pandemic controls, a Reuters poll showed on Monday. COVID outbreaks in November in manufacturing hubs, such as Zhengzhou and Guangzhou, likely also disrupted production and weighed on exports. Due to a high year-earlier base for comparison and sluggish domestic demand, economists estimated November imports had been down 6.0%. The median estimate in the poll indicated a narrower trade surplus of $78.1 billion, compared with $85.15 billion in October. Beijing has introduced a vaccination campaign for the elderly, and some local governments are relaxing lockdowns, quarantine rules and testing requirements.

☆ India stocks to rise 9% by end-2023 despite slowing economy - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary poll dataBENGALURU, Nov 30 (Reuters) - India's stock market, which rallied to a record high this week, is forecast to rise another 9% by the end of 2023 despite widespread expectations of a gradual slowdown in the economy, according to market experts polled by Reuters. The benchmark BSE Sensex Index (.BSESN) touched an all-time record high of 62,887.40 on Tuesday, surging more than 23% from this year's low of 50,921.22 hit on June 17. The Sensex was then forecast to rise to 68,000 by end-2023, for a total gain of around 9%. The Nifty 50 (.NSEI), which has also hit a record high, was forecast to gain 4.7% from Tuesday's close of 18,618.05 to 19,500 by mid-2023, and reach 20,500 by end-2023. But by most measures, the Indian market looks overbought.

☆ China's factory activity contraction likely deepened in Nov on COVID woes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BEIJING, Nov 28 (Reuters) - China's factory activity is expected to have contracted further this month, piling pressure on the economy as COVID restrictions hit production and exports fell despite a flurry of stimulus policies, a Reuters poll showed on Monday. China's economy is poised to miss the "around 5.5%" full-year government growth target with gross domestic product expanding just 3% in the first three quarters of this year. Chinese advisers say they will recommend a modest growth target for 2023 ranging from 4.5% to 5.5% to an annual policymakers' meeting in December. The official manufacturing PMI, which largely focuses on big and state-owned firms, and its survey for the services sector, will be released on Wednesday. The private sector Caixin manufacturing PMI, which centres more on small firms and coastal regions, will be published on Thursday.

☆ India's economy likely slowed to annual 6.2% in July-Sept: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary Data due at 1200 GMT on Wednesday, Nov. 30BENGALURU, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The Indian economy likely returned to a more normal 6.2% annual growth rate in July-September after double-digit expansion in the previous quarter, but weaker exports and investment will curb future activity, a Reuters poll showed. In April-June, Asia's third-largest economy showed explosive growth of 13.5% from a year earlier thanks mainly to the corresponding period in 2021 having been depressed by pandemic-control restrictions. The 6.2% annual growth forecast for latest quarter in a Nov. 22-28 Reuters poll of 43 economists was a tad lower than the RBI's 6.3% view. Meanwhile, the RBI raised its key policy interest rate to 5.9% from 4.0% in May and is widely expected to add another 60 basis points by the end of March. "Between December and February, the headwinds to growth may become more evident," said Deutsche Bank's Das.

☆ Australia house prices forecast to slump 16% from peak
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Australian house prices have nearly doubled since the financial crisis but that boom has led to a build-up of household debt that could become a risk to financial stability. Although average house prices have fallen 6.5% since a peak late last year, with losses spreading to every state capital, they are still well above pre-pandemic levels. "We expect a peak to trough housing fall of 15-20% and this should be considered an orderly descent," said Adelaide Timbrell, senior economist at ANZ. While lower house prices would help improve affordability, it would be a bitter pill to swallow for recent homeowners, watching their capital decline and facing higher repayments as interest rates rise. AMP, ANZ, Knight Frank and Macquarie said average house prices would have to fall between 25% and 45% to make Australian housing affordable.

☆ New Zealand house prices forecast to drop 18% from peak
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Average house prices in the country rose by more than 40% at the height of the pandemic before reaching a peak in November last year at levels the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) said were unsustainable. Still, that fall would be tiny compared to the 250% rise in New Zealand house prices since 1998, almost four times the average increase across OECD countries. House prices have nearly doubled in the last seven years alone. Asked how much average house prices would fall from peak to trough, analysts who answered an additional question gave a median estimate of 18%, with forecasts in a 14%-23% range. But a lot needs to happen to better balance the housing market here with a horrible undersupply of houses," said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank.

☆ Indonesia Oct trade surplus seen at $4.5 bln as global trade weakens- Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Summary Trade data due at 0400 GMT on Tuesday, Nov. 15JAKARTA, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Indonesia's trade surplus is seen narrowing slightly in October to $4.5 billion, amid weakening in global trade and moderating commodity prices, a Reuters poll showed on Monday. The median forecast from 15 economists in a Reuters poll was for a $4.5 billion surplus in October, below September's surplus of nearly $5 billion. Export growth was seen at 13.85% annually in October, slower than September's 20.28%, while imports were seen up 23.62% on a yearly basis, versus 22.02% in September. Bank Mandiri's economist Faisal Rachman, who predicted a $4.42 billion October surplus, said while export growth was slowing, demand for imports was rising in preparation for year-end needs. Still, the Indonesian government has forecast the resource-rich nation will book its biggest exports on record this year of $292 billion.

☆ Bank Negara Malaysia set to hike for fourth time in a row on Nov. 3 - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Shaloo Shrivastava | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) started raising rates in May even though inflation was within its target range of 2%-3%. It has since hiked rates by 75 basis points to keep inflation in check. All but two of 27 economists in the Oct. 25-31 poll predicted BNM would hike its overnight policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% from 2.50% at its Nov. 3 meeting. While 13 of 18 penciled in a 25 basis point hike in Q1, three said 50 basis points. The median forecast showed the overnight policy rate would remain at 3.00% until at least the end of next year.

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